Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Should we believe Gio?

Year in and year out we always hear about a handful of star athletes being on performance enhancing drugs or HGH. The only person to date to get out of any suspension was Ryan Braun. Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens have gotten off through the courts but their hall of fame chances have been severely hurt. Rafael Palmeiro pointed his finger at the Supreme Court justices and told them he had never used performance enhancing drugs, yet it came out that he did. So why should we believe Gio Gonzalez? He is on a list with Alex Rodriguez (admitted user), Melky Cabrera (50 game suspension) and Bartolo Colon (50 game suspension). So Gio is the only "clean" player on this list?

Everything points to Gio Gonzalez lying about having never used PEDs or HGH. His name being on a list with 3 other admitted users of these substances and his name being on a list of making a $1000 purchase. I will say that I believe him. My reasoning may or may not make sense but let's compare him to others, particularly Alex Rodriguez. Gio is open to everyone. He goes on the radio and does interviews, does interviews with the MASN crew, even interacts with people on twitter. Hell Gio even put an open ad out for a date to the Nationals gala on twitter. Have you ever seen A-Rod do an interview openly? Do you see him joke around with the rest of the Yankees infield like Gio does with Strasburg, Zimmermann and Detwiler?  People that have something to hide are quiet and don't like to have microphones in their faces.

Aside from while in court, did we ever see Roger Clemens put himself out there? Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were open to everything during their home run chase, but once they were accused of using PEDs they were gone, out of the spotlight. How about the rumors, though faint, of Cal Ripken Jr using PEDs? It has popped up in the past, but like Gio, Cal has an open personality and is always out doing things, not hiding in the shadows. Bartolo Colon is 39 years old, he is using PEDs to continue his career. Most pitchers at 39 are generally done. Alex Rodriguez claimed that from 2001-2003 he used PEDs to keep up with the extraordinarily massive contract that he signed. Melky Cabrera most likely used because he was in a contract year and has always been a mediocre player. He was just looking for that one big pay day. He is 28 years old and has always just been a utility guy and knew this was his chance to cash in. What would Gio have to gain?

Sure he could use a A-Rod type excuse, since he signed a 5 year $42 million extension securing him through 2016, but he isn't in Washington to be the #1 guy. This is also Washington and he isn't anywhere near the highest paid pitcher in baseball. His 2012 season consisted a stat line like this: 21-8, 2.89 era and 207 strikeouts through 199.1 innings. Coming into this season his average stat line (since becoming a full time starter) was 15.5 - 10.5, 3.17 era and 185 strikeouts through 201.1 innings. Take into consideration the Nationals sport a top defense in baseball and had the best record to go along with it, seems to me that Gio had a pretty "average" year. He is in the prime of his career and this is only his third full year of starting in the majors. He has gotten better each year, so the numbers don't show any sign of performance enhancement. We aren't talking a guy like Barry Bonds who peaked at the age of 28 with 46 home runs only to magically hit 45 or more (including 73) in 5 straight seasons at the ages of 35-39. Maybe I am wrong though, maybe it was just the massive elbow brace Bonds wore. Realistically that is a sign of PEDs.

Gio Gonzalez will now have to fight hard to prove his innocence. In sports, once you are pegged as a PEDs user, you will always be linked to it no matter what. Yes, I have referenced Clemens and Bonds in this and no they have never tested positive, but let's be realistic. The numbers back Gio 100%. His physique, thought that can be misleading, has not changed one bit (see Barry Bonds). I have to back Gio Gonzalez 100%, sure I am a Nationals fan but Gio doesn't fit the prototype of a PEDs user. I would be genuinely shocked to see Gonzalez test positive or come out and admit to using any illegal substance and because of my strong feeling on this, my stance will not change until he comes out and says, "I am guilty."

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Are the Wizards blowing their draft chances?

John Wall came back January 12th and the Wizards have been rolling since. They are 5-3 since Wall's return and even in their 3 losses (by a combined 12 points) they have looked more like a team. As much of a Wizards fan as I am, I am starting to worry about the Wizards draft pick. We all know Ernie Grunfeld will try his best to screw things up, but if they keep winning and they fall out of the top 3 who knows what direction Grunfeld will go. It is nice that the team isn't the worst in the NBA now (Charlotte is a half game worse), but do we really want to hope that Grunfeld doesn't pick another Vesely or hope for the top pick and nail down a definitive pick?

The Wizards are 6-4 in their last 10 games. In the Eastern Conference, from 8 to 15, no one is better over their last 10 games. The Wizards can go 500 from here on out and easily move up the rankings in the East. They are only 9 games out of the 8th and final playoff spot. Would I like for them to make the playoffs, absolutely, but at what cost? I would like for them to have a shot at a Cody Zeller (assuming he comes out). I don't want to pick in the teens and then end up with another player in Europe who won't be around for years. If they finish in the bottom 5 in the league, I would have to assume that Grunfeld will be fired. I like Randy Wittman, but he isn't the guy for this team. I honestly don't like how he has used his players. The Wizards don't have 10 players worthy of playing, yet 10-12 guys play nightly.

The Wizards need to find a coach with experience, but one who can teach these young players how to play and ensure that they grow. They need a GM that knows what he is doing. Grunfeld hasn't been relevant since John Starks was relevant. The ship sinking would be the only way to ensure (or so I hope) that Grunfeld is out. Bring in a young, up and coming GM who is hungry. Grunfeld has brought in too many bodies that do the same thing. Too many forwards that are the same player.

Sure the draft is still a lottery, but do we want to try our luck as 10 worst team or the 3rd worst team in the league? Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Mason Plumlee, just a few names that could work for the Wizards. You need a big guy that can and will score. Sure you have Nene and Kevin Seraphin, but Nene can hardly stay healthy. We can't count on Vesely by any stretch of the imagination, other than to foul out, and Okafor won't be here past the 2013-14 season. It is somewhat imperative to finish in the bottom 5 of the league just to ensure the future of the organization.

I don't want to sound like a downer here, I want the Wizards to make the playoffs and do good. As of right now, and the state that the team is in, it is in their best interest to lose. They are in dire need of an actual power forward and the best way to get one is to have a top 3 pick in the draft. This organization hasn't had much luck in the past decade, other than lucking into Wall, but with some luck this team could become a top 4 team in the East. There is no reason that this team can't contend with the Nets or Hawks or Pacers for the fourth spot, if they get that dominant scorer. Wall and Beal are two parts, but you need at least someone down low (see the Miami Heat with Chris Bosh). Let's just hope the Wizards don't screw up their ping pong balls too much and finally get that dominant down low threat that the team has lacked for decades.


Thursday, January 24, 2013

C-A-P-S, who?

We aren't that far removed from the 2009-10 season in which we saw many of these same Capitals put up 121 points and win the President's Trophy. Many Caps fans, including myself, are here wondering, what happened? Alexander Ovechkin hasn't lost his skills and talents, as proved in the KHL during the lockout. Nicklas Backstrom certainly hasn't gotten worse, also proved in the KHL while centering for Ovechkin. Sure the lockout didn't help implement Adam Oates' new system, but how do you forget how to score goals? Even if you are going to give up 14 goals in the first 3 games, they didn't play the likes of Ryan Miller or Martin Broduer. Scoring only 6 goals is ridiculous Let it be known that the 6 goals scored have come from Joel Ward (2), Joey Crabb, Matt Hendricks, Troy Brouwer and Wojtek Wolski, one legitimate top 6 forward.

Alexander Ovechkin, 556 games played 339 goals and 680 points, Nicklas Backstrom, 368 games played 101 goals 369 points, Mike Green, 401 games played 82 goals 251 points. These three players are offensively minded players and can put the puck in the net. Even though Backstrom is more of an assist man, he sets everything up. In three games this season, I haven't see much from any of these players. Green has logged a ton of ice time this season, but has been invisible offensively.  The team has added players like Mike Ribiero, Troy Brouwer, Marcus Johansson, Joel Ward, Roman Hamrlik, and brought up youngsters like Michael Nuevirth, Braden Holtby, John Carlson and Karl Alzner. They have progressively dropped off year after year. There have been injuries (Backstrom, Green, Poti) but every team has injuries. The Penguins have barely had Sidney Crosby the last two seasons but they keep on clicking.

I gave up my season tickets following the 2011-12 season. The ticket prices keep rising and the quality of play hasn't been consistent. During the 2008-09 season and the 2009-10 season, you could go to the Verizon Center and all but guarantee the Caps were going to win. Last season I could not give some of my tickets away. It is hard to make 41 games living 90 minutes from the stadium, but to not be able to give tickets away is rough. Since the 121 point season the team has now had 3 different head coaches. They have had 3 different systems to try and adjust to. Bruce Boudreau was offense first and second then think about playing some defense, Dale Hunter was the exact opposite in defense defense defense and sit on a one goal lead and Adam Oates wants to play more of an uptempo style of hockey with sound defense. This is quite a shock to players like Ovechkin and Backstrom who then have to change their style of play to become more of a team player.

The team has tried many different options at goalie. They had Theodore, brought up Varlamov, went with Varlamov and Neuvirth, traded Varly, added Vokoun. In the end Holtby sent Vokoun packing and the team is now going with two youngsters (Neuvy and Holtby). I can't blame the goalies too much, their defense in front of them has often failed them. The team has always put offensive minded defenseman on the ice over defensive minded players. Hamrlik, Carlson, Green, and Poti are all more offensive minded players. Alzner, Schultz and Erskine are the more defensive minded players. That isn't a balance that should be on the ice. Sure we are only 3 games in but why hasn't Erskine seen any ice time? Carlson and Alzner are the "shutdown" pair as they should be. They are the younger guys that can log ice time in all shifts and have proven that they know what they are doing. Poti and Green should not be paired together at all. Sure Poti is older and not as offensive minded, but at the same time Green needs to be out there with someone whose first thought is to stay back and play D. Roman Hamrlik is just getting older and isn't a top 4 defenseman anymore. Jeff Schultz and Mike Green paired up and had a combined +89 during the President's Trophy season in 2009-10. Why was this pairing broken up? I understand Green has been hurt, but consistency is how teams grow. It is exactly how the Capitals became good again, letting the young kids player together, learn each other and grow. Why change things around?

The offense has it's own question marks. It is in flux with the Brooks Laich injury and that is understandable. Ideally the top six forwards are Ovechkin, Backstrom, Brouwer, Laich, Ribiero and either Wolski or Chimera. With Laich out several players are playing out of place. Marcus Johansson, Wolski, Perreault, Chimera and Matt Hendricks have been playing all over the lines. I would love to see the Caps just put their top line together, preferably Backstrom, Ovechkin and Brouwer, and then fill in the rest. If you don't solidify your top line then what do you have? Backstrom has 2 assists, Ribiero has 3 assists and that's about it for your top 6 forwards. Yes it is only 3 games but that is unacceptable. Alexander Ovechkin needs to go back to having 8-10 shots a game and letting a player like Troy Brouwer score off Ovechkin's rebounds. I am not a pro hockey player or coach by any means, but this is pretty simple. Look at how the Caps have lost in the playoffs. The Flyers stood in front of the goalie, as did Pittsburgh, New York, Tampa Bay and Montreal. Players scored in those games that we hadn't really heard much about because they just tapped in misses. Any system can have this simple game plan implemented in and help ease the growing pains. Remember in Boston, game 7, Joel Ward crashed the net with Mike Knuble and boom Caps win. They have the big bodies, Brouwer, Ward, Hendricks, even Ovechkin, use them! Sidney Crosby sits in front of the net and scores a hand full of "garbage goals" a year.

Yes it is early, 3 games into a 48 game season. I still think it will take the first 1/3 of the season (16 games) for this team to get going. It is very concerning to see a team fall this quickly from the spotlight. The "big three" are still around, still young and now entering the prime of their careers. There is no reason for them to struggle when the team needs them most. They wear the Captain's C and alternate A's on their chest night in and night out and need to step up to end this woeful play. If the team doesn't get it together, this may be the last season we see many of these players wearing the red Capitals jersey. The salary cap will begin to plunge and if they aren't winning, then it will be back to rebuilding. The team needs to start playing hard, play with their heart and show that they want to win. This uninspired hockey has to end or else the Capitals will be left behind, not only in the southeast division and NHL but in Washington DC as well.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Nationals make a splash!

In a total of one week, Mike Rizzo and the Washington Nationals have forked out a total of $52 million on two players over two years. The Nationals signed closer Rafael Soriano to a 2 year $28 million deal. I for one had to push my jaw back up into position after my ESPN app on my phone alerted me to this signing. The organization seemed pretty content on allowing Drew Storen another chance to make up for his postseason blunder. Alas here we are with a new closer in Washington.

Soriano, who is in his 12th season in the majors, had 42 saves last season for the Yankees. The Nationals hold a vesting option for a third year and will most likely pull the trigger on that options assuming Soriano is as advertised. A 2.26 era last year helped lead to a career year. His 11 year era is 2.78, which still is a solid number. The Nationals played musical chairs last year in the closer position, using Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez, Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett and Drew Storen. Nationals pitchers converted only 51 of 68 save chances in the 2012 season. That is only a 75% clip. Soriano was 42 of 46 in save opportunities, sporting a 91.3% save percentage.

One can only assume that either Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen could be on their way out of Washington. It has be noted through numerous outlets that the Nationals tried to trade Drew Storen in 2011 for now National center fielder Denard Span. I would have to assume that the Nationals realize that they need a left handed arm in the back of the bullpen. They did sign former Nationals prospect Bill Bray to a minor league contract, but if the front office is willing to spend $28 million on a closer, wouldn't they have offered up more to a Sean Burnett or gone after J.P. Howell?

So now that I have had a chance to digest what has happened lets look at the what ifs. What if the Nationals don't trade anybody just yet? The last three innings of a ball game will have Clippard, Storen and Soriano available to pitch. That will put any other teams bullpen to shame. This also enables the team to limit the innings of a Stephen Strasburg or even Dan Haren to keep everyone fresh come October. As of now, the bullpen will consist of Clippard, Storen, Soriano, Duke, Garcia, Matthues, Stammen, and possibly a Henry Rodriguez or a Cole Kimball. Also with minor league deals to Bray, Ross Ohlendorf, and Brandon Mann, the team could keep 8 bullpen arms.

Clearly Mike Rizzo is taking a win now approach. While the team did have to give up their 2013 first round draft pick for Soriano, the Yankees offered him a qualifying offer, they did solve a problem at the back end of the bullpen. I don't see there being any sort of controversy of who the closer will be. $14 million a year pretty much guarantees Soriano first crack at the spot. However, the team in no way needs to trade Clippard or Storen this season. Teams that win a World Series have strong bullpen arms to hold down those close game leads. Signing Soriano may be a questionable move, but the Nationals were literally a strike away from advancing in the playoffs, if Rizzo believes this is what they need then lets all hop on the wagon and see where it take us.

Monday, January 14, 2013

RG3 starts to fill his trophy case

Robert Griffin III is the Pro Football Weekly (along with the Pro Football Writers of America) offensive rookie of the year. The awards didn't just stop there as Robert was also named their overall rookie of the year as well. I will be a homer and say he definitely deserved the award over Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson. Griffin put up some big time numbers, as did the other two, but did it by playing in technically 14 1/2 games. Not to mention he played the last two games of the season basically on one leg.

Luck and Wilson were both on teams that were going to be in position to make the playoffs with just a decent quarterback. Peyton Manning didn't play last year and the Colts fell to the worst record in the league. The Colts did have a new coaching staff in place, but with their division not being strong, they were going to have a solid chance to win some games. Seattle had Tavaris Jackson at quarterback for 14 games and Charlie Whitehurst for 2 in 2011. They finished 7-9 just missing the playoffs. Their defense had already started to show dominance and they already had an offensive line and running back in place.  The Redskins had a ton of holes to fill, $18 million less than everyone else to spend in free agency and uncertainty everywhere minus tight end, linebacker and defensive line.

Griffin lined up versus New Orleans with a rookie 6th round draft pick (Alfred Morris), an unproven offensive line, Garcon as the only "threat" from the receiving core and not to mention he himself a rookie at the toughest position to play in football. He became the first player in NFL history to debut with over 300 yards passing, 2 or more scores and no interceptions. He started the season with a record and broke several more as the season went on. Griffin lost his top target (Garcon) in the first quarter of the first game and didn't have him for much of the next 8 games. Take any teams top offensive threat away and where do they stand? Remember just a few years ago when the Giants lost Plaxico Burress? Maybe we take away Adrian Peterson from the Vikings or Dez Bryant from the Cowboys, how much different would their seasons have gone?

Griffin went on to set team records in yards (3,200), passing percentage (65.6), touchdowns (20), interceptions (5) and passer rating at 102.4. He also set team rushing records with 815 yards and 7 touchdowns. On an NFL scale, he led the league in yardage per pass attempt (8.14) and totaled the lowest interception total for quarterbacks attempting over 300 passes this season. Remember Griffin didnt play versus Cleveland and only played into the second quarter against Atlanta. The NFL and its fans recognized Griffin's performances this season and he was elected as one of the three NFC quarterbacks in the Pro Bowl. He is the first Redskins offensive rookie to have that honor since 1969 (Larry Brown).

Put aside all the injury talk and the what ifs. Robert Griffin III had a solid rookie campaign and already redefined the quarterback position (see the Seahawks and 49ers). More teams will look to a Griffin like quarterback in the near future, which will keep Tim Tebow in the league and have colleges looking for more Johnny Manziel type of players. I am sure Griffin will do nothing but thank and praise his teammates for this honor, but Robert deserves all the glory. This certainly won't be his first or last award in the league and the people at Canton better get ready to receive more Robert Griffin III memorabilia.

Hockey season is finally around the corner

So it only took away about 3 1/2 months of the normal hockey season, but finally all the t's are crossed and i's are dotted and the NHL is only 5 days away from starting. The schedule just came out and let's just say it is a bit compacted. Not one single hockey fan can ever say "there is nothing on TV tonight" with this schedule. 48 games are squeezed into just under 3 1/2 months. The schedule generally ends the first week of April, but this season the regular season will run until the end of April.

One downside, being a Washington Capitals fan, is that moving Winnipeg to the western conference never happened. This makes life rough on all the teams that are truly in the "southeast" division. The Capitals have a stretch of March 19-24 where they are at Pittsburgh, at Winnipeg, at Winnipeg, at New York Rangers. Yes back to back away games on back to back nights in Winnipeg. The NHL did at atleast help the Caps out in whenever they are in Winnipeg, with the exception of the back to back games, that they don't play back to back nights. I also don't agree with the fact that with a 48 game schedule, the league didn't concentrate more on division play. The Caps play the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers only 4 times. They play Winnipeg and Carolina 5 times. In my opinion, 6 games versus each division opponent leaving 24 games to go against the other 10 teams in the conference. Leading to playing each team twice with the Caps getting teams like Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and New Jersey 3 times. This would help boost TV ratings on a sport that needs to bring the fans back.

I had season tickets for 3 seasons with the Caps, the last three seasons to be exact. I gave up my tickets after the regular season ended in April. I grew frustrated as Ted Leonsis continually raised the ticket prices. I understand its a business, but to raise season tickets more than $1200 (total) from season one to season three was unexplainable. When I bought the tickets the Caps were essentially unbeatable. Last season I couldn't go to the game and expect a win. Once I heard of another ticket price increase for 2012-13 and the onset of a possible strike I got out. I received an email from the Caps for a 3 and 6 game ticket plan for $144 and $288 respectively. I just popped onto the Tampa Bay Lightning's website and they offer a free home jersey, a 25% discount off food and beverages, a 35% discount on merchandise, the opportunity to purchase concert and event tickets in those seats. I would get a card for about a 10% discount off to Kettler  Capitals Iceplex and a free lanyard to hold my ticket in every year but that's about it. Also as per Chris Botta (twitter handle chrisbottanhl) the Florida Panthers are selling season tickets at $7 a seat. This would be $336 for a pair of tickets for 24 games. They are also throwing in free parking, which at the Verizon Center (if driving) averages about $25 a game and a free jersey. Not to mention the Panthers are not making anyone commit to buying these tickets for next season. This is a time where all the teams in the NHL need to give to the fans, they already took half a season away from us.

I understand things are being thrown together with the NHL and how the season is going, but the NHL teams and owners need to be more respectful and giving to the people that put money in their pockets. This season every team will end up in the red on their ledgers, but should be building to get back in the black for next season. Plain and simple, give now to get later or else you won't be able to get fans back that were once interested in a great sport.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Is Rudy Gay the fix to not getting James Harden?

So as rumor has it, Ernie Grunfeld made a "good offer" to the Memphis Grizzlies for small forward Rudy Gay. There is already a log jam at small forward and Gay is an overpaid underachieving player. The Wizards already have Trevor Ariza, Martell Webster, and Chris Singleton at this spot. To make any sense of this trade, at the very least two of those players need to be on the move.

Rudy Gay's career line is 17.9 points per game, 5.7 rebounds per game, 34.4% from 3pt range, 45.3% field goals and 77.2% free throws. Is this player worth $16 million the next two seasons? This year Gay is only shooting 41.3% from the field and a paltry 30.8% from beyond the arc. When a team, like Memphis, is fourth in their conference and an up and coming team, why would they trade a player like this? They say it is to get under the luxury tax, but you do that in the off season. This is the kind of bad deal that the Wizards and Ernie Grunfeld are known to make. There are warnings and red flags all over.

Of the team's "interested" in Gay, only Golden State is over 500. The Toronto Raptors, Phoenix Suns, Washington Wizards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are all the teams I have seen as interested. Notice how the better managed teams are not going after Gay? The Wizards don't need another "star." Wall just came back tonight and had a decent game, Bradley Beal is starting to come into his own as well. Nene is solid when healthy and honestly Kevin Seraphin needs to see more action. There really isn't enough ball to go around with Gay in the mix.

Now to honestly stomach a trade for Gay, I can only see one offer. Sure this will seem like a lot but salaries have to be close. Gay for Ariza, Webster, Vesely and a protected first round pick. At least we know Gay is a better player than Vesely. We would need to clear out some small forward space and I would like to keep a more defensive minded player in Singleton than Webster. Ariza has been nothing to this team and Vesely is the worst pick in the last 15 years next to Kwame Brown (yes fans its been 11 years since that terrible pick). At the very least Gay is gone after two seasons, althought his $17.8 and $19.3 million will hurt, this team will be wide open money wise. Wall can still be re-signed, Beal can be re-signed and who ever the Wizards take top three in the 2013 draft can also be extended (if he is any good).

So all in all, I am completely against trading for Rudy Gay. You don't fix one mess up with another. Harden is gone and doing pretty damn good in Houston. You win some you lose some, but don't screw up again. Hold on to the 2013 first round pick, take a solid player, keep Wall healthy and go from there. Ernie Grunfeld needs to be fired at seasons end, but if he pulls the trigger on a deal like this, the few fans that are left in this town will most likely revolt and Ted Leonsis won't be able to give tickets away. Let's see what Wall and Beal can do together and wait until the offseason to make any drastic moves.